Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
Worick · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
883 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
632 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
531 picks · 846 bans
Snapfire
475 picks · 328 bans
Death Prophet
464 picks · 991 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:18
D2 Hustlers 56%No Sorry 44%
The model gave 56% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by No Sorry in 36:32.
Game 2prediction missed12:26
D2 Hustlers 56%No Sorry 44%
The model gave 56% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by No Sorry in 30:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 56%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2