Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 1:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PSPecado Squad Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Pecado Squad Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
416 picks · 945 bans
Void Spirit
381 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 705 bans
Mars
328 picks · 552 bans
Grimstroke
312 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 220 bans
Lion
279 picks · 154 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 84%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect