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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

D2 Hustlers

No games played over 6 months.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 19 games
84%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 16 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
623 picks · 407 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
548 picks · 527 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
538 picks · 430 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
432 picks · 518 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 382 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 200 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 480 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 209 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 78%
Hero pool strength63% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
D2 Hustlers 39%PSG Quest 61%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 58:46.
Game 2prediction correct27:3
D2 Hustlers 39%PSG Quest 61%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:13.
Game 3prediction correct30:21
D2 Hustlers 39%PSG Quest 61%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:01:32.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 61%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3