ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionDD2Playersloss 0:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Creepwavewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2Players
No games played over 6 months.
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
Earthshaker
MiLAN · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
Puck
304 picks · 689 bans
Mars
295 picks · 515 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 118 bans
Lina
261 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
D2Players 33%Creepwave 67%
The model gave 67% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 43:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 67%
Series resultCreepwave 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1