ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDD2Playerswin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IVYloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2Players
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Monkey Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
Puck
304 picks · 691 bans
Mars
295 picks · 517 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 119 bans
Lina
261 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% D2Players
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 51%
Series resultD2Players 1:0
Series predictionmissed