Dalanjing Gaming vs Team Aster — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Dalanjing Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Asterwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dalanjing Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Team Aster

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

13 picks · 18 bans

53%

Monkey King

12 picks · 14 bans

50%

Puck

12 picks · 28 bans

63%

Earth Spirit

11 picks · 8 bans

60%

Mars

11 picks · 31 bans

60%

Crystal Maiden

10 picks · 0 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

9 picks · 10 bans

77%

Mirana

9 picks · 14 bans

62%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Dalanjing Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Dalanjing Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed8:27

Dalanjing Gaming 51%Team Aster 49%

The model gave 51% on Dalanjing Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:21.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo