PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alone in Jungleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Alone in Jungle
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
406 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
404 picks · 446 bans
Weaver
385 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 872 bans
Phoenix
356 picks · 736 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
325 picks · 497 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:4
Dandelions 68%Alone in Jungle 32%
The model gave 68% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Alone in Jungle in 15:23.
Game 2prediction missed10:36
Dandelions 68%Alone in Jungle 32%
The model gave 68% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Alone in Jungle in 16:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 68%
Series resultDandelions 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2