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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
27%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 658 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 621 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 312 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 802 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 423 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 357 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:10
Dandelions 48%MarsBet Team 52%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Dandelions in 42:12.
Game 2prediction correct32:6
Dandelions 48%MarsBet Team 52%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 26:03.
Game 3prediction correct30:13
Dandelions 48%MarsBet Team 52%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 45:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 52%
Series resultMarsBet Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3