European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Montewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Monte
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
486 picks · 752 bans
Batrider
468 picks · 920 bans
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 611 bans
Techies
442 picks · 339 bans
Rubick
437 picks · 195 bans
Mars
432 picks · 687 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 725 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% Dandelions
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
Dandelions 70%Monte 30%
The model gave 70% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Monte in 39:38.
Game 2prediction missed26:3
Dandelions 70%Monte 30%
The model gave 70% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Monte in 21:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 70%
Series resultMonte 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2