The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 641 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 760 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:27
Dandelions 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 32:02.
Game 2prediction correct38:27
Dandelions 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 46:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 55%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2