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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionswin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Twisted Mindsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 16 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
58%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Handsken · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 697 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 615 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 391 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 750 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 1040 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:13
Dandelions 67%Twisted Minds 33%
The model gave 67% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 45:25.
Game 2prediction missed48:18
Dandelions 67%Twisted Minds 33%
The model gave 67% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 40:41.
Game 3prediction missed40:13
Dandelions 67%Twisted Minds 33%
The model gave 67% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 36:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 67%
Series resultDandelions 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3