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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dandelions

Rubick
Rubick
SsaSpartan · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Nande · 2 games
0%
Lina
Lina
Mo13ei · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Gilgir · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
xn丶e · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 2 games
0%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
66%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
48%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
507 picks · 362 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 245 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
349 picks · 358 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 633 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
324 picks · 234 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
313 picks · 412 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 307 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
284 picks · 270 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:47
Dandelions 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNande
49% · 169 games61% · 68 games
Clinkznesfeer
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
47% · 311 games48% · 241 game
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickGilgir
46% · 155 games57% · 190 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
44% · 197 games55% · 212 games
Banemrls
Bane
47% · 121 game
UndyingHduo
Undying
Game 2prediction missed52:20
Dandelions 28%Zero Tenacity 72%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Dandelions in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNande
51% · 18 games51% · 79 games
Drow Rangernesfeer
Drow Ranger
Snapfire
Snapfirexn丶e
46% · 198 games57% · 146 games
LargoMikSa`
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGilgir
47% · 344 games51% · 334 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterSsaSpartan
48% · 184 games48% · 139 games
UndyingHduo
Undying
57% · 46 games
Miranamrls
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct12:26
Dandelions 31%Zero Tenacity 69%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNande
51% · 295 games55% · 196 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Lina
Linaxn丶e
42% · 22 games51% · 252 games
Tinynesfeer
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterGilgir
47% · 279 games50% · 155 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingSsaSpartan
49% · 119 games53% · 83 games
Keeper of the Lightmrls
Keeper of the Light
48% · 29 games
Witch DoctorHduo
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 84%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3