DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horsewin 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Brightloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dark Horse
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 5 games
Clockwerk
sheep · 4 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
Techies
sheep · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 1 game
Team Bright
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
Linasignature
Ulu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
392 picks · 642 bans
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
Mars
376 picks · 609 bans
Techies
373 picks · 305 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 772 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 350 bans
Tiny
341 picks · 392 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:22
Dark Horse 38%Team Bright 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clockwerksheep
MorphlingUlu
44% · 71 game
Primal BeastXwy
41% · 25 games
MagnusIrving
45% · 101 game
RubickTK
42% · 27 games
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct
Dark Horse 27%Team Bright 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright.
Game 3prediction missed
Dark Horse 27%Team Bright 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 73%
Series resultDark Horse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3