The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horsewin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dark Horse
Clockwerk
sheep · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 7 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Techies
sheep · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
sheep · 2 games
Iooften banned
sheep · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 2 games
Team Bright
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 9 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 226 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 749 bans
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 418 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 631 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 742 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 1021 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total74% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:36
Dark Horse 35%Team Bright 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 54:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinksheep
Weaverukiyo
Bane谢乐zzz张泽中
Witch DoctorTK
Game 2prediction missed32:11
Dark Horse 39%Team Bright 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pugna谢乐zzz张泽中
Tinyukiyo
Grimstrokesheep
Crystal MaidenTK
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 74%
Series resultDark Horse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2