PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Darkhorseloss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Eaglewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkhorse
No games played over 6 months.
Eagle
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 12 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Manic · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Rubick
Hara · 4 games
Techies
Victoria · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 604 bans
Techies
365 picks · 291 bans
Mars
363 picks · 562 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
344 picks · 713 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Darkhorse
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Darkhorse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:14
Darkhorse 53%Eagle 47%
The model gave 53% on Darkhorse — the game was taken by Eagle in 21:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkhorse · 53%
Series resultEagle 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1