Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Darksideloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 26 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 14 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 498 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 637 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 688 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 775 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 71%
Hero pool strength64% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
Darkside 20%Hydra 80%
The model gave 80% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:31.
Game 2prediction correct24:20
Darkside 20%Hydra 80%
The model gave 80% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 80%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2