Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Darksideloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 22 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
Mirana
Panto · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 13 games
Snapfire
Gilgir · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
858 picks · 603 bans
Tiny
616 picks · 426 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
512 picks · 825 bans
Snapfire
459 picks · 317 bans
Death Prophet
458 picks · 952 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total78% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:34
Darkside 22%One Move 78%
The model gave 78% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 44:30.
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Darkside 22%One Move 78%
The model gave 78% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 36:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 78%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2