DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDarkStormloss 0:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Amaru Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DarkStorm
No games played over 6 months.
Amaru Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 8 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 7 games
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
639 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
515 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
490 picks · 403 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
415 picks · 381 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1089 bans
Puck
388 picks · 826 bans
Mars
382 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DarkStorm 19%Amaru Gaming 81%
The model gave 81% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 81%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1