DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDDarkStormwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Freedomloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DarkStorm
No games played over 6 months.
Team Freedom
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
654 picks · 742 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 488 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 404 bans
Warlock
445 picks · 303 bans
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1100 bans
Phoenix
398 picks · 327 bans
Puck
388 picks · 799 bans
Mars
385 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% DarkStorm
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% DarkStorm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:34
DarkStorm 52%Team Freedom 48%
The model gave 52% on DarkStorm — the game was taken by DarkStorm in 38:39.
Game 2prediction correct41:20
DarkStorm 52%Team Freedom 48%
The model gave 52% on DarkStorm — the game was taken by DarkStorm in 35:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkStorm · 52%
Series resultDarkStorm 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2