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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Darleng

No games played over 6 months.

Talon Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
23savage · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 10 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 381 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 430 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
215 picks · 545 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
192 picks · 169 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
Darleng 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Darleng in 34:55.
Game 2prediction correct42:47
Darleng 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:06:00.
Game 3prediction missed35:15
Darleng 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Darleng in 36:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Series resultDarleng 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3