Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Daxak Teamloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rostik999 Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Daxak Team
No games played over 6 months.
Rostik999 Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
608 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
503 picks · 278 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
474 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
414 picks · 576 bans
Puck
353 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
340 picks · 285 bans
Beastmaster
339 picks · 882 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Daxak Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Rostik999 Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Daxak Team 30%Rostik999 Club 70%
The model gave 70% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Game 2prediction correct
Daxak Team 30%Rostik999 Club 70%
The model gave 70% on Rostik999 Club — the game was taken by Rostik999 Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteRostik999 Club · 70%
Series resultRostik999 Club 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2