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WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Daxak Teamwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Stray Clubloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Daxak Team

Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Daxak · 2 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Unique · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Groom · 2 games
100%
Lich
Lich
r4dom1r · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphling
eccobladee2k · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Unique · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand King
Unique · 2 games
50%

Stray Club

Mirana
Mirana
Goodoq · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Stray · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Stray · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Vovapain · 2 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
zvёzd · 2 games
100%
Razor
Razor
zvёzd · 2 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
461 picks · 284 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 454 bans
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 130 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
302 picks · 124 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 288 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
278 picks · 244 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 411 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
270 picks · 389 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Daxak Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Daxak Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Daxak Team 55%Stray Club 45%
The model gave 55% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 21:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druideccobladee2k
60% · 64 gameslittle data
Wraith KingDkFogas
Wraith King
Leshrac
LeshracUnique
49% · 37 games45% · 10 games
Death ProphetStray
Death Prophet
Omniknight
OmniknightDaxak
59% · 9 games43% · 66 games
Monkey Kingzvёzd
Monkey King
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeGroom
47% · 53 games46% · 70 games
TechiesGoodoq
Techies
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanr4dom1r
57% · 30 games52% · 47 games
Winter WyvernVovapain
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct50:16
Daxak Team 53%Stray Club 47%
The model gave 53% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
48% · 95 games56% · 45 games
Medusazvёzd
Medusa
Lifestealer
Lifestealereccobladee2k
50% · 71 game58% · 50 games
Ogre MagiStray
Ogre Magi
Monkey King
Monkey KingUnique
47% · 70 games51% · 138 games
EnchantressDkFogas
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaGroom
49% · 59 games53% · 87 games
TechiesGoodoq
Techies
Jakiro
Jakiror4dom1r
47% · 216 games46% · 191 game
AxeVovapain
Axe
Model check result
Model favoriteDaxak Team · 56%
Series resultDaxak Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2