ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDDead Denastywin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sadboysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dead Denasty
No games played over 6 months.
Sadboys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 531 bans
Lion
421 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 714 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 474 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 599 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 938 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Dead Denasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Dead Denasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:35
Dead Denasty 64%Sadboys 36%
The model gave 64% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Dead Denasty in 43:07.
Game 2prediction correct32:36
Dead Denasty 64%Sadboys 36%
The model gave 64% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Dead Denasty in 38:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteDead Denasty · 64%
Series resultDead Denasty 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2