Открытые киберспортивные студенческие игры 2024. Российский финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Derzhawinloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ССевГУwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Derzhawin
No games played over 6 months.
СевГУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
342 picks · 458 bans
Clockwerk
341 picks · 297 bans
Tusk
326 picks · 449 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 213 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 566 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 460 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 373 bans
Luna
258 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Derzhawin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% СевГУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Derzhawin 30%СевГУ 70%
The model gave 70% on СевГУ — the game was taken by Derzhawin.
Game 2prediction correct
Derzhawin 30%СевГУ 70%
The model gave 70% on СевГУ — the game was taken by СевГУ.
Game 3prediction correct
Derzhawin 30%СевГУ 70%
The model gave 70% on СевГУ — the game was taken by СевГУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteСевГУ · 70%
Series resultСевГУ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3