The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
DGG Esportswin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 35 games
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 14 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
Mirana
Qupe · 13 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
710 picks · 558 bans
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 654 bans
Marci
496 picks · 781 bans
Puck
481 picks · 1008 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 423 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 156 bans
Razor
301 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:30
DGG Esports 47%IVY 53%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 1:00:12.
Game 2prediction correct11:28
DGG Esports 47%IVY 53%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 30:14.
Game 3prediction correct29:10
DGG Esports 47%IVY 53%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 34:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 53%
Series resultDGG Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3