The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
DGG Esportsloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
Tusk
GH · 13 games
Iosignature
GH · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
Dawnbreakersignature
SumaiL · 9 games
Tiny
KuroKy · 9 games
Zeussignature
KuroKy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
708 picks · 556 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 653 bans
Marci
497 picks · 777 bans
Puck
476 picks · 999 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 399 bans
Snapfire
309 picks · 155 bans
Razor
299 picks · 557 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:25
DGG Esports 30%Nigma Galaxy 70%
The model gave 70% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:37.
Game 2prediction correct29:10
DGG Esports 30%Nigma Galaxy 70%
The model gave 70% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2