Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
DGG Esportswin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ssverhrazumloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
sverhrazum
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
551 picks · 371 bans
Queen of Pain
482 picks · 579 bans
Mars
450 picks · 607 bans
Weaver
425 picks · 778 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 176 bans
Kunkka
348 picks · 549 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 578 bans
Wraith King
290 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% DGG Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% sverhrazum
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:23
DGG Esports 38%sverhrazum 62%
The model gave 62% on sverhrazum — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 43:37.
Game 2prediction missed18:41
DGG Esports 38%sverhrazum 62%
The model gave 62% on sverhrazum — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 38:51.
Model check result
Model favoritesverhrazum · 62%
Series resultDGG Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2