DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Direborn Esportsloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xipto Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Direborn Esports
Kezsignature
Dreamocel · 6 games
Hoodwink
db- · 4 games
Axeoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
woMy · 2 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
woMy · 2 games
Doomoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Enchantress
db- · 2 games
Xipto Esports
Doomoften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Dark Willow
Q · 2 games
Dragon Knight
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Rubick
Q · 2 games
Techiesoften banned
Q · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Q · 1 game
Dazzle
Oli · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
567 picks · 373 bans
Dark Willow
504 picks · 304 bans
Mirana
426 picks · 189 bans
Winter Wyvern
400 picks · 359 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 549 bans
Windranger
352 picks · 173 bans
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 568 bans
Centaur Warrunner
302 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Direborn Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Xipto Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:19
Direborn Esports 41%Xipto Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Xipto Esports — the game was taken by Xipto Esports in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageDreamocel
Terrorblade23savage
ViperwoMy
BrewmasterFbz
Hoodwinkdb-
Sand KinginYourdreaM
Clockwerkdalul
MiranaOli
40% · 327 games
Dark WillowQ
Game 2prediction correct8:35
Direborn Esports 41%Xipto Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Xipto Esports — the game was taken by Xipto Esports in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenDreamocel
Clinkz23savage
DoomwoMy
Dark SeerFbz
Hoodwinkdb-
SlardarinYourdreaM
Rubickdalul
TechiesOli
52% · 317 games
ClockwerkQ
Model check result
Model favoriteXipto Esports · 69%
Series resultXipto Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2