Direborn vs Tekla — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

DDirebornwin 2:0

series probability

39%61%

probability at match start · final 2:0

TTeklaloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Direborn

Silencer

PlayHard · 4 games

25%

Ancient Apparitionoften banned

Juju · 3 games

33%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

woMy · 3 games

33%

Kezoften banned

db- · 2 games

50%

Marsoften banned

woMy · 2 games

50%

Night Stalkeroften banned

woMy · 2 games

100%

Slarkoften banned

Cije · 2 games

50%

Tidehunteroften banned

woMy · 2 games

Tekla

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

633 picks · 420 bans

54%

Rubick

539 picks · 302 bans

50%

Phoenix

487 picks · 588 bans

50%

Tiny

475 picks · 398 bans

49%

Pangolier

432 picks · 625 bans

49%

Puck

357 picks · 1004 bans

57%

Tusk

347 picks · 298 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

342 picks · 531 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Tekla

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total61% Tekla

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed45:35

Direborn 47%Tekla 53%

The model gave 53% on Tekla — the game was taken by Direborn in 50:53.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo