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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
dldfansloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Arcanewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

dldfans

Rubick
Rubick
marblue · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 4 games
25%
Lich
Lich
Tz. · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Molasses · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Tz. · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ash · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ash · 1 game
0%

Arcane

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Victoria · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Killa · 1 game
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Killa · 1 game
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
759 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 464 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 998 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 936 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
391 picks · 589 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
391 picks · 602 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
389 picks · 666 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% dldfans
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% dldfans
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:15
dldfans 53%Arcane 47%
The model gave 53% on dldfans — the game was taken by dldfans in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenManic
51% · 50 games53% · 134 games
AlchemistFonte
Alchemist
Doom
DoomMolasses
48% · 127 games51% · 81 game
MagnusKilla
Magnus
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAsh
42% · 39 games57% · 47 games
OmniknightStorm
Omniknight
Rubick
Rubickmarblue
42% · 204 games52% · 261 game
SilencerVictoria
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorTz.
53% · 103 games
Game 2prediction missed24:36
dldfans 53%Arcane 47%
The model gave 53% on dldfans — the game was taken by Arcane in 49:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidManic
49% · 89 games43% · 41 game
Phantom LancerFonte
Phantom Lancer
Alchemist
AlchemistAsh
56% · 94 games52% · 145 games
TimbersawKilla
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMolasses
40% · 44 games54% · 298 games
Ember SpiritStorm
Ember Spirit
Rubick
Rubickmarblue
47% · 354 games51% · 164 games
Keeper of the LightVictoria
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaTz.
50% · 67 games
Game 3prediction missed36:28
dldfans 53%Arcane 47%
The model gave 53% on dldfans — the game was taken by Arcane in 1:02:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkManic
53% · 74 games62% · 84 games
MedusaFonte
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingAsh
50% · 170 games43% · 319 games
DoomKilla
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
59% · 56 games43% · 108 games
Void SpiritStorm
Void Spirit
Rubick
Rubickmarblue
50% · 252 games50% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightVictoria
Keeper of the Light
Undying
UndyingTz.
47% · 112 games
Model check result
Model favoritedldfans · 55%
Series resultArcane 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3