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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daxak · 19 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 13 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
prblms · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
30%

9Pandas

Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sayuw · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 655 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
414 picks · 458 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
351 picks · 442 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 519 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 173 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
318 picks · 391 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 644 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
294 picks · 305 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% DMS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:38
DMS 49%9Pandas 51%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 50:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterxannii
51% · 320 games50% · 335 games
LunaDarkLord^
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
53% · 153 games51% · 448 games
Pangolierlaise
Pangolier
Doom
Doomemptiness
48% · 285 games54% · 188 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Tusk
TuskHduo
50% · 306 games43% · 56 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Lion
Lionprblms
49% · 321 game49% · 358 games
Hoodwinkyamich
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct19:37
DMS 48%9Pandas 52%
The model gave 52% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightxannii
47% · 257 games48% · 179 games
AlchemistDarkLord^
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
51% · 108 games54% · 235 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal Beastemptiness
49% · 206 games50% · 24 games
Dazzlelaise
Dazzle
Lich
LichHduo
54% · 19 games43% · 329 games
EnchantressSolo
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonprblms
49% · 237 games60% · 60 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 50%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2