European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 14 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
Level UP
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Earthshakersignature
MaTson · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
498 picks · 681 bans
Clockwerk
424 picks · 477 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 546 bans
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
339 picks · 177 bans
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 443 bans
Enchantress
325 picks · 657 bans
Batrider
315 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
DMS 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightShigetsu
AlchemistFocus
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
TinyMaTson
UnderlordNefrit
TuskSsaSpartan
Muertaprblms
SnapfireJeezy
Phoenixaik
Game 2prediction missed13:24
DMS 51%Level UP 49%
The model gave 51% on DMS — the game was taken by Level UP in 17:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
GyrocopterFocus
BeastmasterNefrit
EarthshakerMaTson
Storm Spiritmellojul
RubickJeezy
Nyx Assassinprblms
TuskSsaSpartan
Pugnaaik
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 50%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2