The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monteloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
No games played over 6 months.
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 717 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 760 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DMS 72%Monte 28%
The model gave 72% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Game 2prediction missed
DMS 72%Monte 28%
The model gave 72% on DMS — the game was taken by Monte.
Game 3prediction correct
DMS 72%Monte 28%
The model gave 72% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 72%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3