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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 14 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 9 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
prblms · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 8 games
63%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 36 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 444 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 262 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 550 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
303 picks · 256 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 399 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 463 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
287 picks · 235 bans
44%
Sand King
Sand King
278 picks · 780 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% DMS
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:18
DMS 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckmellojul
44% · 225 games52% · 79 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
47% · 151 game51% · 162 games
Doompma
Doom
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinrincyq
39% · 24 games53% · 189 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
60% · 133 games59% · 210 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
45% · 196 games45% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct15:41
DMS 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunarincyq
49% · 280 games49% · 175 games
Alchemistgotthejuice
Alchemist
Tiny
Tinymellojul
52% · 310 games53% · 164 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderDaxak
53% · 269 games51% · 439 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Muerta
Muertaprblms
45% · 77 games46% · 223 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
50% · 249 games52% · 184 games
Naga SirenRiddys
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2