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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
80%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Somnia · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bashka · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 296 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 435 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
330 picks · 253 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 539 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
298 picks · 285 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
295 picks · 412 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 472 bans
45%
Sand King
Sand King
294 picks · 796 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
DMS 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on DMS — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Game 2prediction correct
DMS 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Game 3prediction correct
DMS 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 71%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3