European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
DOGSENTloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DOGSENT
Dazzleoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
islA · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Marci
Atoufix · 1 game
Muerta
Atoufix · 1 game
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 1 game
Void Spirit
islA · 1 game
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 39 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 35 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
623 picks · 811 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
449 picks · 397 bans
Warlock
445 picks · 294 bans
Shadow Demon
396 picks · 1042 bans
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 679 bans
Mars
378 picks · 592 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
DOGSENT 22%Rune Eaters 78%
The model gave 78% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HoodwinkAtoufix
Templar Assassinyowaai
JakiroNagato
ViperEthereal
57% · 281 game
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
54% · 280 games
Shadow DemonKidaro
49% · 292 games
Tinyani-san
Game 2prediction correct22:51
DOGSENT 22%Rune Eaters 78%
The model gave 78% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderAtoufix
Windrangeryowaai
TuskNagato
Queen of PainEthereal
52% · 122 games
PhoenixAnkou
46% · 238 games
DisruptorKidaro
44% · 58 games
Spirit Breakerani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 92%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2