EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dota Teamloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dota Team
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
388 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
362 picks · 516 bans
Mars
314 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
282 picks · 495 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 157 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Dota Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Dota Team 38%HellRaisers 62%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:23.
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Dota Team 38%HellRaisers 62%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 27:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 62%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2