Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Doze Rebornloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Its Okaywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Doze Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Its Okay
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
29 picks · 56 bans
Puck
28 picks · 63 bans
Earth Spirit
25 picks · 16 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 38 bans
Monkey King
21 picks · 37 bans
Undying
21 picks · 36 bans
Batrider
18 picks · 75 bans
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Doze Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Doze Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:11
Doze Reborn 54%Its Okay 46%
The model gave 54% on Doze Reborn — the game was taken by Its Okay in 37:17.
Game 2prediction missed44:20
Doze Reborn 54%Its Okay 46%
The model gave 54% on Doze Reborn — the game was taken by Its Okay in 30:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteDoze Reborn · 54%
Series resultIts Okay 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2