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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 27 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 14 games
43%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 28 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 681 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 479 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 546 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 444 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 659 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 325 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength60% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total89% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:50
Dragon Esports 24%AVULUS 76%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 50:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
50% · 120 games52% · 106 games
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
49% · 130 games51% · 285 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Doom
DoomInfernal
41% · 156 games56% · 138 games
Earth SpiritStormstormer
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxsvampire
48% · 40 games52% · 64 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
47% · 176 games58% · 29 games
OracleSoNNeikO
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct20:50
Dragon Esports 24%AVULUS 76%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
51% · 137 games47% · 259 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
45% · 433 games56% · 160 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Mars
MarsInfernal
53% · 248 games51% · 137 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
52% · 163 games48% · 286 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
47% · 167 games49% · 306 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 89%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2