?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 26 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 22 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 19 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
xsvampire · 18 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
41%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 6 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
445 picks · 551 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
438 picks · 521 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 568 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 276 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 403 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 176 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 722 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 141 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:31
Dragon Esports 61%Hydra 39%
The model gave 61% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperlil pleb
49% · 91 game40% · 191 game
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingPanda
60% · 159 games50% · 248 games
PangolierEthereal
Pangolier
Venomancer
Venomancerxsvampire
51% · 20 games53% · 34 games
TidehunterActor
Tidehunter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerInfernal
59% · 45 games41% · 122 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMary_y
54% · 280 games
Game 2prediction missed10:30
Dragon Esports 60%Hydra 40%
The model gave 60% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPanda
48% · 97 games41% · 129 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlil pleb
44% · 25 games51% · 170 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusInfernal
55% · 104 games49% · 60 games
EarthshakerEthereal
Earthshaker
Chen
ChenMary_y
60% · 88 games52% · 93 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
48% · 138 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 64%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2