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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 12 games
8%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
38%

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 40 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 38 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 34 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 32 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 31 game
65%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 26 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 275 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 454 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 310 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
317 picks · 368 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 413 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 464 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 508 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
Dragon Esports 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
48% · 123 games52% · 164 games
WindrangerUlnit
Windranger
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
57% · 110 games58% · 117 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
48% · 95 games55% · 96 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Sniper
Sniperarmageddon
51% · 105 games44% · 141 game
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
48% · 232 games40% · 147 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed24:1
Dragon Esports 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 26:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalil pleb
50% · 214 games53% · 53 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Puck
Puckdualrazee
57% · 204 games43% · 179 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderInfernal
54% · 21 game49% · 188 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Sniper
Sniperarmageddon
50% · 79 games37% · 13 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Omniknight
OmniknightMary_y
51% · 53 games50% · 138 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct6:32
Dragon Esports 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalil pleb
46% · 169 games59% · 61 game
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
50% · 65 games52% · 243 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsInfernal
47% · 194 games51% · 101 game
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Mirana
Miranaarmageddon
48% · 137 games46% · 295 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
44% · 217 games61% · 82 games
Omniknightbengan
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 83%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3