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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
paw · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 1 game
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 35 games
46%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Niku · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 683 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 604 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 383 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 749 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
345 picks · 964 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
Dragon Esports 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 21:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
54% · 121 game48% · 25 games
Meepopma
Meepo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpaw
53% · 41 game42% · 79 games
Void SpiritNiku
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusNorma
54% · 104 games48% · 49 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
46% · 46 games
WeaverDaze
Weaver
47% · 67 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct29:41
Dragon Esports 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:00:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand Kingdualrazee
50% · 6 games52% · 9 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Ursa
Ursapaw
54% · 48 games44% · 10 games
Slardarpma
Slardar
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNorma
48% · 31 game61% · 18 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
34% · 29 games
PhoenixDaze
Phoenix
56% · 19 games
ClockwerkRiddys
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2