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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 11 games
36%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
14%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 20 games
45%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 17 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 351 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
359 picks · 403 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 257 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 517 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
279 picks · 252 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 478 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 348 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 61%
Hero pool strength61% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total87% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:27
Dragon Esports 28%Night Pulse 72%
The model gave 72% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 51:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
44% · 90 games51% · 204 games
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Huskar
Huskardualrazee
51% · 39 games48% · 261 game
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Mirana
Miranaarmageddon
49% · 175 games58% · 77 games
EnigmaKami
Enigma
Primal Beast
Primal BeastInfernal
45% · 314 games55% · 102 games
LeshracJANTER
Leshrac
Tusk
TuskMary_y
48% · 156 games54% · 130 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed24:6
Dragon Esports 27%Night Pulse 73%
The model gave 73% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 23:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
54% · 65 games45% · 68 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
59% · 54 games55% · 227 games
Primal BeastKami
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
52% · 215 games47% · 66 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
50% · 149 games43% · 160 games
TuskJANTER
Tusk
Sniper
Sniperarmageddon
46% · 46 games42% · 8 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 87%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2