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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
14%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%

One Move

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 437 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 317 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 504 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 482 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 532 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total79% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
Dragon Esports 21%One Move 79%
The model gave 79% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:12.
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Dragon Esports 21%One Move 79%
The model gave 79% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 79%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2