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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Palianytsialoss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 8 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
43%

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
kreker · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 350 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 407 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
344 picks · 258 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 511 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
282 picks · 255 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
276 picks · 367 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 459 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:13
Dragon Esports 44%Palianytsia 56%
The model gave 56% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 23:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdualrazee
53% · 75 games49% · 113 games
LinaCrystallize
Lina
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
56% · 103 games46% · 266 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawInfernal
50% · 231 game46% · 276 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMary_y
50% · 105 games45% · 146 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Rubick
Rubickarmageddon
54% · 380 games52% · 93 games
MarciQBFY
Marci
Game 2prediction correct28:44
Dragon Esports 42%Palianytsia 58%
The model gave 58% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 54:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
55% · 165 games52% · 232 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
44% · 89 games53% · 250 games
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
TimbersawInfernal
48% · 213 games47% · 130 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
50% · 193 games55% · 52 games
Omniknightkreker
Omniknight
Mirana
Miranaarmageddon
48% · 150 games49% · 146 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2