Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Teawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Sven
paw · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
Team Tea
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 695 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 465 bans
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 374 bans
Weaver
320 picks · 610 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 244 bans
Rubick
315 picks · 205 bans
Dark Willow
308 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
294 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tea
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:38
Dragon Esports 13%Team Tea 87%
The model gave 87% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 49:25.
Game 2prediction correct33:5
Dragon Esports 13%Team Tea 87%
The model gave 87% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 19:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 87%
Series resultTeam Tea 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2