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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonloss 0:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aster.Arieswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon

Mars
Marsoften banned
ghost · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 4 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Azrael · 3 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1013 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 587 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
340 picks · 179 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
337 picks · 529 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 706 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 285 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dragon 25%Aster.Aries 75%
The model gave 75% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 75%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1