Dream Maker vs Talon Esports — prediction DPC2—Ю · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1

result vs prediction

Dream Makerloss 0:1

series probability

31%69%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Talon Esportswin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dream Maker

Lion

czy · 5 games

40%

Sand Kingoften banned

Nevermine · 5 games

40%

Beastmasteroften banned

Nevermine · 4 games

50%

Tidehunteroften banned

Nevermine · 4 games

Dawnbreakeroften banned

TrazaM · 3 games

33%

Marsoften banned

TrazaM · 3 games

Mirana

czy · 3 games

33%

Rubick

czy · 3 games

67%

Talon Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

264 picks · 332 bans

48%

Tidehunter

260 picks · 383 bans

48%

Monkey King

247 picks · 575 bans

61%

Void Spirit

225 picks · 251 bans

49%

Lion

224 picks · 103 bans

52%

Lina

221 picks · 456 bans

55%

Pangolier

217 picks · 270 bans

50%

Bane

213 picks · 137 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Talon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:47

Dream Maker 39%Talon Esports 61%

The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:51.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

PangolierNevermine

44% · 135 games52% · 63 games

Phantom AssassinGabbi