Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 10 games
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 9 games
Silencer
ShakaLord · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
Snapfire
Demon · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 687 bans
Tiny
654 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 958 bans
Tusk
552 picks · 432 bans
Snapfire
531 picks · 361 bans
Disruptor
522 picks · 382 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1187 bans
Clockwerk
501 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:16
Dreamers 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 46:47.
Game 2prediction correct20:37
Dreamers 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 29:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 56%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2