Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
ArzenT · 8 games
Silenceroften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Tuskoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
Viperoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
drakeel · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
437 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
435 picks · 288 bans
Tiny
424 picks · 394 bans
Mirana
318 picks · 320 bans
Treant Protector
285 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
258 picks · 135 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 608 bans
Crystal Maiden
228 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Dreamers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Dreamers 39%Mad Kings 61%
The model gave 61% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 24:59.
Game 2prediction correct37:38
Dreamers 39%Mad Kings 61%
The model gave 61% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 61%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2